The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for November 2023 global air cargo markets indicating the strongest year-on-year growth in roughly two years. This is partly due to weakness in November 2022, but also reflects a fourth consecutive month of strengthening demand for air cargo.
Global demand for air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), increased by 8.3% compared to November 2022. For international operations, demand growth was 8.1%.
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), was up 13.7% compared to November 2022 (+11.6% for international operations). Most of the capacity growth continues to be attributable to the increase in belly capacity as international passenger markets continue their post-COVID recovery.
Compared to November 2019 (pre-COVID-19), demand is down 2.5% while capacity is up 4.1%.
Some indicators to note include:
- Both the manufacturing output and new export order Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) – two leading indicators of global air cargo demand—continued to hover just below the 50-mark in November with small positive movements indicating a deceleration of the economic slowdown.
- Global cross-border trade recorded growth for the third consecutive month in October, reversing its previous downward trend.
- Inflation in major advanced economies continued to soften in November as measured by the corresponding Consumer Price Index (CPI), centering around 3% year-on-year for the United States, Japan, as well as the EU, in November. In the meantime, China exhibited negative annual growth in its CPI for the second time in a row.
- Air cargo yields (including surcharges) continued their significant upward trend (+8.9% since October). Rising yields are in line with improving air cargo load factors over recent months. This could be tied in part to booming e-commerce deliveries from China to western markets.
“November air cargo demand was up 8.3% on 2022—the strongest year-on-year growth in almost two years. That is a doubling of October’s 3.8% increase and a fourth month of positive market development. It is shaping up to be an encouraging year-end for air cargo despite the significant economic concerns that were present throughout 2023 and continue on the horizon,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Air Cargo Market in Detail
| NOVEMBER 2023 (%YEAR-ON-YEAR) | WORLD SHARE *1 | CTK | ACTK | CLF (%-PT) *2 | CLF (LEVEL) *3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total Market
|
100%
|
8.3%
|
13.7%
|
-2.3%
|
46.7%
|
|
Africa
|
2.0%
|
3.9%
|
14.0%
|
-4.1%
|
42.1%
|
|
Asia Pacific
|
32.4%
|
13.8%
|
29.6%
|
-6.6%
|
47.9%
|
|
Europe
|
21.8%
|
6.7%
|
6.5%
|
0.1%
|
57.0%
|
|
Latin America
|
2.7%
|
4.2%
|
7.7%
|
-1.2%
|
36.3%
|
|
Middle East
|
13.0%
|
13.5%
|
15.4%
|
-0.8%
|
46.9%
|
|
North America
|
28.1%
|
1.8%
|
4.0%
|
-0.9%
|
40.8%
|
(*1) % of industry CTKs in 2022 (*2) Year-on-year change in load factor (*3) Load factor level
November Regional Performance (Total Market)
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 13.8% in November 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This performance was significantly above the previous month’s growth of 7.6%. Available capacity for the region’s airlines increased by 29.6% compared to November 2022 as more belly capacity came online with the removal of COVID-19 restrictions.
North American carriers had the weakest demand growth in November with a 1.8% increase (YoY) in cargo volumes. This was, nonetheless, a significant improvement in performance compared to October’s -1.8% contraction. Capacity increased by 4.0% compared to November 2022.
European carriers saw their air cargo volumes increase by 6.7% in November compared to the same month in 2022. This was a stronger performance than in October (1.0%). Capacity increased 6.5% in November 2023 compared to 2022.
Middle Eastern carriers had the strongest performance in November 2023, with a 13.5% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes. This was similar to the significant improvement noted in the previous month’s performance (+13.0%). Capacity increased 15.4% compared to November 2022.
Latin American carriers experienced a 4.2% increase in cargo volumes compared to November 2022, very similar to the 4.0% year-on-year increase recorded for October. Capacity in November was up 7.7% compared to the same month in 2022.
African airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 3.9% in November 2023, slightly improved compared to October’s +2.9% growth performance. Capacity was 14.0% above November 2022 levels.
