The airfreight industry is navigating a complex and often contradictory global environment—one shaped by geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, sustainability challenges, and the ongoing debate about the future of globalisation. Despite the uncertainty, there is reason to remain cautiously optimistic about long-term trends and the sector’s resilience.
“I’ll be honest with you,” says Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “When we look at the data in aggregate, it’s still positive. There’s still strong demand for flying and still strong demand for cargo. It’s a strange environment, but it’s a positive environment. For both passenger and cargo overall, there are markets that have been impacted negatively, but the big picture is a positive picture.”
While headlines have painted a gloomy picture of declining trade and regional fragmentation, Walsh points to data suggesting that global aviation—particularly in cargo—is still robust, albeit with some volatility driven by trade policy. For example, he notes how shippers have pre-emptively moved goods ahead of anticipated tariffs, distorting short-term trends: “Cargo has probably been more disruptive because a lot of stuff is being shipped in advance of tariffs coming into effect. We’ve seen quite a lot of movement in the booking trends and the shipping trends that you would, in isolation, think there’s something weird going on here, but it’s principally people taking a view that if they can avoid the tariff, they will.”
Globalisation endures
Despite fears that globalisation is in retreat, Walsh remains firm in his belief that nations are too interconnected to unwind. “The US is just part of a global economy,” he explained. “While America is impacting on trade with the US, that’s not the case with most other economies who are continuing to trade with one another as normal.”
Walsh suggests that some markets may actually benefit from US protectionism, as global supply chains adapt. “If I was doing significant trade with the US, do I have a new market that becomes more attractive?” he asks, adding that trade “will continue to move” and that even the US will not become self-sufficient: “That’s just not going to happen.
“Trade continues to move and will continue to move. I suspect the US will reset their trade with the global economy, but will continue to trade. They’re not going to move to a situation where they’re only buying goods from themselves. That’s just not going to happen.
“If you look at what President Trump is trying to do, re-establishing some industries in the US makes a lot of sense, but it will take a lot of time. It’s not just about building the infrastructure. You’ve clearly got to get the talent in place to serve some of these markets that are today being served by businesses that are outside of the US.”
Shared sustainability burden
Perhaps the most pressing long-term challenge facing the aviation industry is its sustainability trajectory, particularly in the race to net zero by 2050. Walsh stressed that while the industry has committed to ambitious climate goals, it cannot achieve them alone.
“The perception of our impact on climate change and the reality are very, very different,” he noted. “It’s two, two and a half percent of global CO2 emissions.”
Despite this misperception, the industry faces mounting pressure to decarbonise. Walsh is blunt about the lack of support from critical parts of the supply chain: “What we’re seeing at the moment is a concern that the bill for net zero is going to fall to airlines, and airlines only, and that’s not acceptable. We need fuel companies to start ramping up the production of sustainable fuels.
“When we committed to net zero in 2050, we were clear that we couldn’t do it alone. We had to have the support of everybody in the wider value chain. And it’s not good enough that they commit to net zero in 2050 but expect us to pay the bill. They’re going to have to share the costs of that transition, which will be very expensive and will be complex. I still believe that it’s possible for us to get there, but we’re slipping behind all the time, and I think it’s important that we see actions on the part of other players to get us back on track”…
