There is a point in the tax reform that, if not corrected in time, will force Brazil to pay a very high price: international air transport. I say this while recognizing the overall merits of the reform: replacing an opaque and litigious system with a simpler model is an advancement that the productive sector has pursued for decades. However, recognizing the merits of the whole does not exempt us from adjusting what has been misplaced. And in the case of aviation, something is clearly out of place.
Today, the sale of international tickets is not taxed in the country. This is not a privilege, but because Brazil follows global best practices consolidated by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which treats international air transport as a service export and recommends avoiding taxes that distort competition and artificially increase the cost of connectivity. With the reform in its current form, we would jump from zero to a tax rate close to 26.5%.
The argument that the tax credit model would neutralize this impact does not hold up for international transport. Most airline costs, such as fuel, maintenance, and leasing, are incurred abroad and do not generate credits in Brazil. The practical result is the application of the full tax rate. And a full tax rate, in a sector with narrow margins, translates directly into ticket prices.
The numbers are alarming. Projections point to a drop of up to 30% in demand. Estimates for the Brazilian market indicate that more than 26 million passengers could stop flying each year – one out of five. These are not abstract statistics: they represent families unable to reunite, patients unable to reach treatment, tourists choosing other destinations, and sensitive cargo – such as vaccines, medicines, and biological samples – that stops circulating.
There is also an effect that few foresee: reciprocity. When a country taxes international routes, others tend to respond in kind, driving up ticket prices on both sides and penalizing the very Brazilian companies trying to grow abroad.
All this in a country where people still fly very little. The average Brazilian takes less than one air trip per year, about 15% below the Latin American average. We welcomed 9.3 million foreign tourists in 2025 – a historical record, yet still a fraction of the nearly 50 million who visit Mexico. The potential is massive, and aviation is the gateway: two out of three international tourists arrive by plane.
I know the government argues, in good faith, that looking at the system as a whole, the reform would be neutral for Brazilian airlines. It is a legitimate point of debate. However, aviation is a long-term network industry: aircraft are ordered a decade in advance, and routes are planned years ahead. What paralyzes investment is not just the final bill, but the uncertainty surrounding it. Today, the only certainty we have is unpredictability.
Adjusting the treatment of air transport does not weaken the reform, nor does it create a sectoral privilege. It is about recognizing that aviation is not a luxury: it is essential infrastructure for a continent-sized country, squeezed between the Atlantic, the Amazon, and the Andes. Preserving connectivity means preserving opportunities for millions of Brazilians.
The reform was designed to unlock Brazil. Let it not stall the very sector that connects the country to itself and to the world.
By Simone Warmbrand Tcherniakovsky, Country Manager of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in Brazil.
