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Europe’s airline capacity begins slow climb

Total seat numbers in Europe are down 84.6% year-on-year in the week of 18-May-2020, according to schedules from OAG combined with CAPA Fleet Database seat configurations.

This is almost 2ppts narrower than the previous week’s 86.5% drop and the smallest rate of decline since Mar-2020. Nevertheless, it is the seventh successive week of cuts broadly in the -85% to -90% range.

Europe’s cuts are no longer the world’s deepest. That distinction now belongs to Latin America, where seats have dropped by 88.7% year-on-year. Seats are down by 80.8% in Middle East, 80.5% in Africa, 78.7% in North America and 51.6% in Asia Pacific. The rate of fall is narrowing in the three big regions – Asia Pacific, Europe and North America – but widening in the others.

Data based on filed schedules indicate that European aviation may be at the beginning of a slow rebuilding of capacity.

However, plans by Ryanair, IAG, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM imply that capacity for Europe’s leading groups will still be reduced by around 50%-80% in Jul-2020. Even those plans are based on the lifting of restrictions.

Europe: 5.1 million seats vs 33.4 million a year ago – down by 85%
Total European seat capacity is scheduled to be 5.1 million seats in the week of 18-May-2020.

This is a 1.9% increase week-on-week, but is still 84.6% below the 33.4 million seats of the equivalent week a year ago, according to the data from OAG/CAPA.

The total is split between 1.5 million domestic seats, versus 7.8 million last year; and 3.7 million international seats, versus 25.6 million.

Europe’s domestic seats have dropped by 81.0% (a lesser cut than last week’s -82.0%); international by 85.7% (a slightly narrower cut than last week’s -87.9%).

The 84.6% year-on-year cut in total seats this week compares with -86.5% in the week of 11-May-2020, which had been the third successive week of cuts of around 87% following the low point of -90.4% in the week of 20-Apr-2020.

This is the ninth week of very heavy double digit percentage (more than 50%) declines in seats.

This week’s cut is the narrowest rate of decline since seat numbers fell by 78.1% in the week of 30-Mar-2020. In absolute terms, this week’s total of 5.1 million seats is also the highest since that same week, when it was 6.7 million.

However, Europe’s capacity can still be characterised as bumping along the bottom…

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